TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Guo vs K. Day (Toronto on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with K. Day favoured at 1.68.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Guo | K. Day |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.0% | 52.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.3% | 66.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.3% | 57.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.0% | 52.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.4% | 57.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
K. Day leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Toronto | hard | K. Day | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Day | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | Xiy. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | E. Jacquemot | 1 - 2 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Inglis | 1 - 2 | June 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Kessler | 1 - 2 | May 25, 2026 |
All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used