H. Gaston vs D. Chan — Prediction & Analysis

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Gaston vs D. Chan (Montreal on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with H. Gaston favoured at 1.25.

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.

Head to head

D. Chan leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

Recent form

All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

═══ H. Gaston (A) vs D. Chan (B) — Montreal, hard, Final ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO A 0.791 | ML A 0.643 | model 0.791 | market implied A 0.75 (odds 1.25 raw 0.80)
  value_pick A, edge +4.1% (model vs devigged). alt_markets ALL NULL — no exchange price.
  ELO & ML DISAGREE sharply (0.79 vs 0.64). Tiebreak below.

RANKING / ELO SANITY
  Gaston rank 118 (legit ATP tour), ELO-fav 0.79 — consistent with a big class gap, BUT
  Gaston's ELO is built almost entirely on CLAY (Estoril, Braunschweig, Bastad, Hamburg,
  RG). This is a HARD-court match → ELO likely overstates him here; ML's 0.64 is the more
  cautious read. Chan rank 650 (futures/challenger level) — ELO/rank agree he's the dog.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all classified)
  Gaston (clay): L van Assche 6-4 7-5 (07-25, Strong, competitive) | W Torres (QF) |
    DOM Droguet 6-0 6-3 (Strong, over-perform) | W Dzumhur | L Altmaier. Deep Estoril run,
    clay-sharp. SHARPENING on clay (6-0 6-3 over a 1807).
  Chan (hard): L Sweeny (07-28) | W McCabe | W Bouchelaghem (Winnipeg final) | W Ayeni |
    L Milavsky. Futures/challenger fields (opp ELO 1469-1602). Sets orientation unreliable.
    Mixed shape, ugly recent loss. Hard-court native (positive path) but level is low.

PATH / SURFACE
  Gaston: TRANSITION clay → hard, 7 days since last match (07-25) — mild rust + off-surface.
  Chan: hard-court native, last match 07-28 (4d) — match-sharp on this surface.
  The transition dents Gaston's level but does NOT close a ~500-rank class gap.

FATIGUE (Step 2)
  Neither on an extreme spot. Gaston 328min/14d well rested (7d gap); Chan 477min/14d, 4d
  gap. No 3-set-hangover-yesterday for either. Cumulative-minutes gap = context only, no edge.
  Ages: Gaston 25 baseline, Chan 21 recovers fast. No fatigue edge either way.

NARRATIVE
  No first-Final letdown in window. No Montreal history for either (phantom/venue-momentum
  none). Title recency: none relevant to hard court.

VERDICT
  Backing A @1.25: min_odds = 1.05/0.79 = 1.33 → 1.25 is BELOW min → automatic PASS on price.
  Backing B (Chan) @3.75: the only support is ML (lone model, likely UNDER-rating the class
  gap — Gaston is a genuine ATP-118 tour player who competed with Cerundolo/Khachanov and beat
  Monfils; Chan is a 650 futures player). No exchange price (book-priced dog) → needs 8% edge
  AND the favorite-longshot bias means a book-only longshot price is NOT value. The apparent
  dog value is an artifact of ML underrating Gaston, not real information. No independent
  qualitative validation for Chan (his form is weak, on weak fields). PASS.
  Full read: efficient enough. Gaston deserved favorite; price too short to back him, dog too
  speculative to back. No side clears its bar.

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — A's edge (+4%) is below the 5% bar and vanishes vs the raw 1.25 book
    price; B's "edge" is a lone-ML artifact, not a real model-market gap. No numeric edge stands.
  G2 consensus:   stake-tier only (no bet).
  G3 fatal-risk:  n/a (ML market; no bet).

DECISION: PASS