TennisEdge's AI bot is backing H. Gaston (moneyline) at 1.79 in H. Gaston vs C. Smith (US Open on 2026-08-27). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Gaston | C. Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.2% | 39.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.8% | 31.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.0% | 40.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.7% | 45.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 11, 2026.
H. Gaston leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 28, 2026 | US Open | hard | H. Gaston | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Martineau | 2 - 1 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| L | V. Kopriva | 0 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | M. Kouame | 0 - 1 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Glinka | 2 - 1 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All Aug. 27, 2026 results & picks →