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H. Dart vs T. Preston — Prediction & Analysis

Vancouver · Vancouver - Quarter-finals · July 30, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Dart vs T. Preston (Vancouver on 2026-07-30) — the market is efficient, with T. Preston favoured at 1.50.

Surface hard Odds H. Dart 2.52 · T. Preston 1.50

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: H. Dart · T. Preston · head-to-head record · Vancouver

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method H. Dart T. Preston
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 45.4% 54.6%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 41.9% 58.1%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 50.2% 49.8%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 43.3% 56.7%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 37.3% 62.7%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
H. Dart hard1679 133–94227
T. Preston hard1773 139–62201

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.

Head to head

T. Preston leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 30, 2026VancouverhardT. Preston2 - 0
April 30, 2026W100 GifuhardT. Preston2 - 1
April 24, 2026W100 TokyohardT. Preston2 - 0
Jan. 8, 2025Australian OpenhardH. Dart2 - 1
May 7, 2023ITF W25 Nottingham 3 WomenhardH. Dart2 - 0

Recent form

H. Dart

L S. Stephens 1 - 2 Aug. 1, 2026
W E. Dong 1 - 1 July 30, 2026
L T. Preston 0 - 2 July 30, 2026
W K. Cross 2 - 0 July 29, 2026
L M. Sakkari 0 - 2 July 15, 2026

T. Preston

W M. Inglis 0 - 2 Aug. 1, 2026
W M. Sawangkaew 2 - 1 July 31, 2026
W P. Hon 0 - 2 July 30, 2026
W H. Dart 0 - 2 July 30, 2026
W H. Kaji 0 - 2 July 29, 2026

All July 30, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

VANCOUVER (WTA hard) - Quarter-finals | H. Dart (A) vs T. Preston (B)

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO A 45.4% | ML A 42.0% | blended 43.3% | market implied A 37.3% (book 2.52)
  Betfair exchange quote (1.13/1.72) is INCOHERENT (~146% overround) - stale/bad data, unusable as executable price. Book 2.52/1.50 is the only usable market; no reliable exchange ML -> 8% book-priced bar applies.
  Executable edge on Dart at raw 2.52 (1/2.52=39.7%): 43.3-39.7 = +3.6% only.

RECENT FORM / PATH
  A H.Dart (30, rk172): 2 deep at Vancouver (match-sharp). 07-30 W vs Dong(1430w) 6-0 3-6 3-0 (3rd 3-0 = likely ret); 07-29 W vs Cross(1649) 6-2 6-1 DOM. Prior: 07-15 L Sakkari 1-6 2-6 (heavy), grass stretch mostly losses. Shape STABLE-to-mixed; DOM over Cross the one bright spot.
  B T.Preston (20, rk126): 2 deep at Vancouver. 07-30 W vs Hon(1500) tb+6-4 GRIND; 07-29 W vs Kaji(1527) 6-0 6-2 DOM. June: Wimbledon QF + Nottingham FINAL on grass - genuine rising 20yo. Shape SHARPENING/rising trajectory.
  Higher-ranked (126<172), younger, on the up - market making her 1.50 fav is well-founded.

FATIGUE (Step 2 calibrated)
  Both played R16 today (07-30); QF is the day after. Dart WON a 3-set match the day before -> extra-set toll ~-4.5pp, HARDENED (age 30, slow recovery). Preston won in 2 sets -> ~neutral, and age 20 recovers fast. Net fatigue favours Preston, i.e. against the value side. Dart -4.5pp -> ~38.8% -> edge goes NEGATIVE (-0.9%).

NARRATIVE
  No let-down/title spots. No surface transition (both on hard at Vancouver). ELO~rank consistent (Preston higher on both) - no farmed-rating flag. Full model+rank+market broadly agree Preston is favourite.

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL - pre-fatigue executable edge only +3.6% (<5% std bar, <<8% book-priced bar with no valid exchange quote). Edge does not exist numerically.
  G2 consensus:   n/a (stake-tier only) - would be lone-ish; models slightly over Dart but qualitative backs Preston.
  G3 fatal-risk:  n/a (ML) - fatigue on the value side (Dart 3-setter, age 30) actively negates the thesis.

VERDICT: PASS. The only pull toward a bet is a thin +3.6% model-over-market on the dog Dart, which sits below every bar at the executable price, is unsupported by an unusable exchange quote, and is erased by Dart's day-before 3-set toll (age-30 hardened). Preston is younger, fresher, higher-ranked and rising - no articulable info the market is mispricing. Clear pass.

AH: not quoted

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