TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Dart vs S. Stephens (Toronto on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with H. Dart favoured at 1.94.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Dart | S. Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.4% | 33.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
44.4% | 55.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
70.9% | 29.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.4% | 33.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Dart | hard | 1679 | 133–94 | 227 |
| S. Stephens | hard | 1620 | 53–68 | 121 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
S. Stephens leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Toronto | hard | S. Stephens | 2 - 1 |
| L | S. Stephens | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Dong | 1 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Preston | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | K. Cross | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | S. Sierra | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used