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H. Dart vs E. Dong — Prediction & Analysis

Vancouver · · July 30, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Dart vs E. Dong (Vancouver on 2026-07-30) — the market is efficient, with H. Dart favoured at 1.30.

Surface hard Odds H. Dart 1.30 · E. Dong 3.35

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: H. Dart · E. Dong · head-to-head record · Vancouver

Full analysis

H. Dart (172) vs E. Dong — Vancouver, hard, R32
[Note: brief lists Dong age 56 / rank 3 — clearly CORRUPT metadata; match history (W35 Saskatoon, opponents 1400-1600 ELO) confirms an ITF-level grinder, not a top-3 player. Ranking field ignored.]

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO Dart 82.5% | ML Dart 73.3% | Sim Dart 67.8%
  Book: Dart 1.30 (77%) / Dong 3.35 (30%)
  Betfair (executable): Dart 1.07 (93%) / Dong 3.90 (~26.6% comm-adj)
  Exchange is FAR more bullish on Dart than any model; book Dong price (3.35) is a
  stale/soft quote the exchange (3.90) contradicts.

RECENT FORM
  Dart (match-sharp, won today): 07-29 W Cross(1649) 6-2 6-1 DOM; 07-15 L Sakkari 1-6 2-6;
    07-13 W Hodzic(1500) 3-6 6-3 7-6 GRIND; 06-29 L Ostapenko(1751) 6-3 3-6 6-4 (narrow, +shape);
    06-23 L Sonmez(1736) 4-6 6-2 7-5. Shape: SHARPENING at venue (today's 6-2 6-1 DOM). WTA-tour level.
  Dong (ITF grinder, deep run): 07-29 W Ku(1601) 6-4 2-6 6.6-7.8 GRIND super-TB; 07-28 W Savinykh(1400) 6-3 6-2;
    07-25 W Shibahara(1538) grind; 07-24 L Cabrera(1500); 07-23 W Poling(1500).
    Shape: UNDER-performing on quality — grinding weak (1400-1600) fields.

FATIGUE (Step 2)
  Dong is an EXTREME spot: 6 matches/7d, back_to_back 4 consecutive days, 499 court min, 18 sets,
    won a Final yesterday (07-28) AND a long 3-set super-tiebreak today (07-29).
  3-set-hangover haircut (-4.5pp) applies to Dong (won 3-setter previous day). Age corrupt -> age-neutral.
  Dart fresher (1 match/7d, 114 min) and won today in straight sets.
  Note: exchange already prices this fatigue heavily (Dart 1.07). No market over-pricing to fade here.

NARRATIVE
  Surface: both on hard, no transition. Dong deep venue run but level-dropper — stats inflated by weak field
  (opponent-unadjusted sim inputs built vs 1400-1600 ELO), so sim OVERSTATES Dong.

EDGE MATH
  Dart @1.07: min_odds = 1.05/0.825 = 1.27 (even sim: 1.55). 1.07 << min -> NO VALUE, auto-pass.
  Dong @3.90 (comm-adj 26.6%): sim 32.2% edge +5.6%; but ML 26.7% (edge +0.1%), ELO 17.5% (negative).
    Only the biased sim shows edge; ML sits exactly at exchange. After -4.5pp fatigue haircut, sim edge -> +1.1%.
    Book value_pick B is a stale-quote artifact contradicted by the exchange (Pricing Discipline #1 = KILLS value).

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — only the opponent-unadjusted sim shows edge (5.6%); ML sits at the exchange price,
    ELO negative. Not a robust model-vs-market gap; the number vanishes after the calibrated fatigue haircut.
  G2 consensus:   stake-tier only — lone contaminated signal (farmed-stat sim vs weak fields) -> capped tier,
    but moot given G1 fail.
  G3 fatal-risk:  n/a (ML) — but self-negating: to back Dong you'd need her competitive while she is the side
    carrying the extreme-fatigue haircut and the lower playing level.

VERDICT: PASS. Dart is priced too short on the exchange (1.07 < min 1.27) to back; Dong's apparent value is a
stale-book artifact the exchange contradicts, shown only by an opponent-unadjusted sim that overstates a tired,
lower-level grinder. No genuine edge on either side.

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