TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Onclin vs S. Mochizuki (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with S. Mochizuki favoured at 1.86.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Onclin | S. Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
37.1% | 62.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
64.4% | 35.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.2% | 50.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.1% | 62.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.6% | 50.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Onclin | hard | 1748 | 126–66 | 192 |
| S. Mochizuki | hard | 1558 | 118–110 | 228 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 26, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 1 |
| March 20, 2023 | Saint Brieuc Challenger Men | hard | G. Onclin | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Dedura | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Gentzsch | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Visker | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Ajdukovic | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | T. Boogaard | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | D. Sweeny | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | H. Matsuoka | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Monday | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used