TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Maristany vs J. Ortenzi (Wimbledon on 2026-06-23) — the market is efficient, with G. Maristany favoured at 1.56.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Maristany | J. Ortenzi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.0% | 38.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.4% | 41.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Maristany | clay | 1662 | 117–83 | 200 |
| J. Ortenzi | clay | 1581 | 165–76 | 241 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 30, 2026.
| L | J. Lim | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Ruggeri | 2 - 0 | May 30, 2026 |
| W | E. Mandlik | 2 - 0 | May 29, 2026 |
| W | M. A. Teixido Garcia | 2 - 0 | May 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Tikhonova | 2 - 0 | May 27, 2026 |
| L | K. Sebov | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Yaneva | 0 - 2 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | F. Pace | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 2 - 0 | June 8, 2026 |
| W | V. Turini | 2 - 1 | June 7, 2026 |
All June 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used