TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Maristany vs J. Belgraver (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with G. Maristany favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Maristany | J. Belgraver |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.7% | 29.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
80.4% | 19.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.1% | 61.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.1% | 36.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
73.2% | 26.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Maristany | clay | 1662 | 117–83 | 200 |
| J. Belgraver | hard | 1455 | 83–70 | 153 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 30, 2026.
G. Maristany leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | G. Maristany | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Lim | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Ruggeri | 2 - 0 | May 30, 2026 |
| W | E. Mandlik | 2 - 0 | May 29, 2026 |
| W | M. A. Teixido Garcia | 2 - 0 | May 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Tikhonova | 2 - 0 | May 27, 2026 |
| L | G. Maristany | 2 - 0 | May 19, 2026 |
| L | S. Lamens | 2 - 0 | May 12, 2026 |
| L | C. W. Hennemann | 2 - 0 | May 7, 2026 |
| W | M. Bulgaru | 2 - 0 | May 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Blinkova | 0 - 2 | April 28, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used