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G. Heide vs K. Feldbausch — Prediction & Analysis

Kitzbuhel · · July 18, 2026 · 14:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Heide vs K. Feldbausch (Kitzbuhel on 2026-07-18) — the market is efficient, with G. Heide favoured at 1.71.

Surface clay Odds G. Heide 1.71 · K. Feldbausch 2.18

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: G. Heide · K. Feldbausch · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ G. Heide vs K. Feldbausch — Kitzbuhel (clay) ═══

MODELS
  ELO: 60.6% A | ML: 46.7% A | Market: 1.71/2.18 (implied 56.0% A)
  Value flag: A +4.6% (ELO vs market) — but ML leans B, models split.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; full 90d used)
  Heide (A):
    07-10 Iasi QF  L vs Droguet (1767, Strong) 6-1 6-3
    07-09 Iasi R16 W vs Cretu (1582, Avg) 3 sets
    07-07 Iasi R32 W vs Poljak (1294, Weak) GRIND (TB)
    07-04 Milan SF L vs Cecchinato (1676, Strong)
    07-03 Milan QF W vs Dalla Valle (1648, Avg) GRIND 7-6 7-6
    Deep runs everywhere: Poznan TITLE 06-20 (beat Diaz Acosta 1796, Choinski 1760, Svrcina 1670), Milan SF, Iasi QF. Quality wins vs Strong, but repeatedly loses to the first Strong/Elite opponent late in events.
  Feldbausch (B):
    07-13 Gstaad R32 L vs Kecmanovic (1769, Strong) 3 sets
    07-05 Troyes F   L vs Moeller (1578, Avg) — bad loss, GRIND (TB)
    07-04 Troyes SF  W vs Giustino (1572, Avg) DOM
    07-03 Troyes QF  W vs Montes-De La Torre (1700, Strong) DOM
    07-02 Troyes R16 W vs Xilas (1382, Weak) DOM
    Record padded vs Avg/Weak fields; folds vs Strong (Kecmanovic, Alcala Gurri) and dropped a final to an Avg opponent.

FATIGUE
  A: 4 matches / 12 sets / 478 min (14d at brief), last 07-10 → ~8d rest
  B: 3 matches / 9 sets / 354 min, last 07-13 → ~5d rest
  Court-time diff 124 min favors B on paper, but both have real rest before Kitzbuhel → roughly neutral by match day.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none (Heide title 28d ago; Feldbausch lost final 13d ago — outside windows).
  Venue: no Kitzbuhel history for either. Title recency: Heide — Poznan 28d ago (clay); Feldbausch — Kosice 48d ago (clay).

VERDICT: PASS
  ELO-market gap is only ~4.6pts and the ML model points the other way (46.7% A) — no consensus model disagreement. Qualitative read mildly favors Heide on opponent quality, but his pattern of losing to Strong opponents and season-long match load undercut backing him at 1.71; Feldbausch's soft-field form gives no case for B at 2.18. No alt markets priced. Thin, conflicted edge → no bet.

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