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G. Dimitrov vs M. Berrettini — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · ATP Wimbledon - 1/16-finals · July 4, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Dimitrov vs M. Berrettini (Wimbledon on 2026-07-04) — the market is efficient, with M. Berrettini favoured at 1.80.

Surface grass Odds G. Dimitrov 2.00 · M. Berrettini 1.80

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: G. Dimitrov · M. Berrettini · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method G. Dimitrov M. Berrettini
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 39.6% 60.3%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 55.8% 44.2%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 39.6% 60.3%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 47.4% 52.6%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
G. Dimitrov hard1828 105–74179
M. Berrettini hard1804 70–53123

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.

Head to head

G. Dimitrov leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 4, 2026WimbledongrassG. Dimitrov3 - 2

Recent form

G. Dimitrov

L N. Borges 2 - 0 July 15, 2026
W D. Svrcina 1 - 2 July 14, 2026
L A. Fery 2 - 3 July 6, 2026
W M. Berrettini 3 - 2 July 4, 2026
W J. Mensik 1 - 3 July 2, 2026

M. Berrettini

L M. Navone 1 - 2 Aug. 3, 2026
L G. Dimitrov 3 - 2 July 4, 2026
W A. Fils 3 - 1 July 2, 2026
W S. Wawrinka 1 - 3 June 30, 2026
L M. Arnaldi 0 - 1 June 3, 2026

All July 4, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

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G. Dimitrov vs M. Berrettini — Wimbledon (grass), 1/16-finals
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MODELS
  ELO   prob_A 0.3965  → Berrettini (0.60)
  ML    prob_A 0.5584  → Dimitrov  (0.56)
  Model prob_A 0.3965  (math-only, = ELO)
  Market: Dimitrov 2.00 (imp 0.474) | Berrettini 1.80 (imp 0.526)
  Value pick B, edge +0.077 (rests entirely on ELO)
  → SPLIT: ELO+market lean Berrettini, ML leans Dimitrov. No mutual agreement.

FORM — DIMITROV (grass)
  W vs Mensik 1650 (Strong)  7-6 4-6 7-5 6-3  GRIND, 4 sets
  W vs Sweeny 1750 (Strong)  7-6 6-3 7-5      GRIND (TB)
  L vs Davidovich-Fokina 1689 3-6 3-6
  W vs Shelbayh 1490 (Weak)  6-2 6-4          DOM
  W vs Polmans 1480 (Weak)   6-1 7-6          GRIND
  Read: solid Wimbledon path (beat 1650 + 1750), but both wins were grinds.

FORM — BERRETTINI (grass)
  W vs Fils 1721 (Strong)    6-4 7-5 3-6 6-3  GRIND, 4 sets
  W vs Wawrinka 1511 (Weak)  7-6 7-6 6-7 7-6  EPIC — 4 TB sets, brutal
  (prior: clay, French QF run in May)
  Read: grass pedigree + quality win over Fils; Wawrinka match was a physical war.

FATIGUE
  Dimitrov: 5 matches/14d, 530min court, back-to-back Mallorca→Wimbledon, played 07-02
  Berrettini: 2 matches/14d, 371min court (185min avg — very grindy), played 07-02
  Court-time diff 159min > 60 → nominal edge Berrettini (Dimitrov heavier schedule),
  BUT Berrettini's two matches were both marathons (Wawrinka = 4 tiebreaks). Edge muddied.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none (neither reached a recent Final)
  Venue: both fresh 2-0 at Wimbledon — venue amplifies nothing
  Title recency: none

VERDICT — PASS
  Value edge on Berrettini is ELO-only and ML actively contradicts it. Qualitative
  fatigue read is ambiguous: Dimitrov played more matches, but Berrettini's path
  (esp. the 4-TB Wawrinka epic) drained similar energy. Market at 1.80/2.00 is
  balanced and efficient. No clean, model+qualitative-aligned edge → stand down.
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