TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Diallo vs L. Sonego (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with L. Sonego favoured at 1.86.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Diallo | L. Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.3% | 37.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.1% | 69.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.3% | 37.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.3% | 50.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
L. Sonego leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Sonego | 3 - 2 |
| Jan. 6, 2025 | Auckland | hard | L. Sonego | 2 - 1 |
| W | K. Jacquet | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Boyer | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Sonego | 2 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Bonzi | 2 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Draper | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══ G. Diallo vs L. Sonego — Wimbledon R32 (grass, 2026-07-02) ═══ MODELS ELO A 0.623 (Diallo favored) ML A 0.476 (leans Sonego) Serve/Rtn A 0.301 (strongly Sonego) Model A 0.623 / B 0.377 Consensus? NO — models split Market A 1.91 (0.493) / B 1.86 (0.507) value_edge A +0.129 (ELO only) FORM — DIALLO (grass, last 90d) 06-30 W vs Bonzi (1722 Strong) R64 Wimbledon — Bonzi retired (led 3-1 in 5th) 06-25 L vs Draper (1848 Elite) 6-1 6-4 06-24 W vs Etcheverry (1567 Avg) 7-6 6-3 6-2 GRIND 06-22 W vs Atmane (1499 Weak) 6-7 6-4 7-5 GRIND 06-16 L vs De Minaur (1879 Elite) 7-6 6-3 Read: sharp grass swing — Eastbourne QF, competitive vs top-tier, beat Etcheverry in 3. FORM — SONEGO (grass, last 90d) 06-30 W vs Etcheverry (1592 Avg) 6-4 6-4 6-7 7-6 4-set GRIND 06-23 L vs Kecmanovic (1563 Avg) 3 sets 06-21 W vs Navone (1855 Elite) GRIND — best win 06-17 L vs Shelton (1890 Elite) 7-5 6-3 06-14 L Halle FINAL vs Basilashvili 4-6 4-6 Read: patchy grass — one strong win (Navone), but lost to Kecmanovic; needed 4 sets vs same Etcheverry Diallo beat in 3. FATIGUE Diallo: 4 matches/14d, ~506 court-min, last 06-30 (5-set retirement), 1d rest Sonego: 4 matches/14d, ~521 court-min, last 06-30 (4-set), 1d rest Edge: Roughly equal (court-time diff 15min, matches equal). Both heavily loaded. NARRATIVE Let-down: None (Sonego lost Halle final 18d ago — outside window, NOTE only) Venue: neither has Wimbledon history in window Title recency: none VERDICT — PASS ELO carries a value edge on Diallo, but ML (0.48) and serve/return (0.30) both cut the other way toward Sonego, and the market sits at a near coin-flip. Models do not mutually agree. Qualitatively the match is genuinely tight: both fatigued, both beat Etcheverry recently (Diallo cleaner), Sonego the more seasoned grass hand. No single side is validated by both models AND the eye test. No edge to press — PASS.