TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Tiafoe vs T. Atmane (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.22.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Tiafoe | T. Atmane |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
85.3% | 14.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.1% | 20.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
80.8% | 19.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.0% | 22.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 28, 2026 | Washington | hard | T. Atmane | 2 - 1 |
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 1 |
| March 24, 2026 | Miami | hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 10, 2026 | Dallas | hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
F. Tiafoe vs T. Atmane — Wimbledon R128 (grass) MODELS: ELO 0.853 | ML 0.791 | Model 0.808 | Market 0.780 (1.22 / 4.33) | edge +2.8% on A FORM: - Tiafoe (A): Halle CHAMPION 9d ago. DOM final win vs Fritz (Elite 2011) 6-4 6-4. Beat FAA (Strong, grind), Shimabukuro DOM vs Strong (6-4 7-5), Cobolli (grind). Grass form excellent. Rested 9d. - Atmane (B): Grass form poor — L vs Diallo (3 sets), L vs Medvedev 4-6 4-6, L vs Borges, only win = Landaluce (grind). FO 1st-rd exit. Season littered with early losses. FATIGUE: Both rested (Tiafoe last match 06-21, Atmane 06-22). Tiafoe heavier 14d load (5 matches/429min) but 9d off neutralizes it. Roughly equal — no edge. NARRATIVE: TITLE: Halle 9d ago (grass). Beyond let-down window (>7d), so no fade. Live grass form strongly favors Tiafoe and matches surface read. VERDICT: ELO + ML + market all agree Tiafoe is a heavy, correctly-priced favorite. Qualitative read validates the favorite (DOM grass form vs a struggling Atmane) but creates no disagreement — full consensus. Edge 2.8% at 1.22 is razor-thin (0u after market shrinkage); risk/reward poor. PASS.