TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Tiafoe vs A. Bublik (Wimbledon on 2026-07-04) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Tiafoe | A. Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
45.4% | 54.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.4% | 33.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.5% | 45.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
A. Bublik leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Bublik | 3 - 2 |
| Oct. 30, 2023 | ATP Paris | hard | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 |
| July 1, 2022 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 1 |
| June 20, 2022 | Eastbourne | grass | A. Bublik | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Atmane | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All July 4, 2026 results & picks →
═══ F. Tiafoe vs A. Bublik — Wimbledon 1/16 (grass) ═══ MODELS ELO A 0.454 → leans Bublik ML A 0.499 → coin flip Model A 0.545 (serve/return 0.664 lifts Tiafoe) Market A 0.550 @1.72 | B @2.10 | value pick B, edge +0.4% (negligible) FORM — TIAFOE (grass, peaking) W Wimb R32 vs Choinski(1589) 4-6 6-2 7-5 6-2 GRIND W Wimb R64 vs Atmane(1480) 7-6 6-1 4-6 6-4 GRIND ★ WON HALLE TITLE 06-21 — beat Fritz(2011 Elite) 6-4 6-4 DOM vs ELITE W Halle SF Altmaier(1577) 6-1 6-3 DOM | QF FAA(1751) 3-6 6-3 7-6 GRIND Read: genuine peak grass form, Halle champion, proven he can grind. FORM — BUBLIK (grass, solid but tight) W Wimb R32 vs Jacquet(1746) 6-3 6-4 7-6 GRIND W Wimb R64 vs Kokkinakis(1636) 5-set grind Stuttgart SF (L Fritz), lots of tiebreak wins. Big grass serve, fresher. FATIGUE Tiafoe: 583min court / 5 matches-14d / back-to-back 3 Bublik: 337min court / 2 matches-14d / back-to-back 0 Δ court time 246min (>60) → Tiafoe disadvantaged. Real edge to Bublik. NARRATIVE Let-down: Halle final won 13d ago → outside window, form carried → None. Title recency: TITLE Halle 13d ago (grass) — live form, not stale. Venue: n/a (first Wimbledon meeting context). VERDICT — PASS ELO + fatigue lean Bublik, but Tiafoe's title-winning grass form (DOM over Fritz) offsets it. ML is a coin flip and computed value edge is +0.4%. Near-efficient market, no clean actionable edge either direction. No bet.