TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Maestrelli vs R. Noguchi (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with F. Maestrelli favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Maestrelli | R. Noguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.2% | 29.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
80.1% | 19.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
75.2% | 24.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.2% | 18.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Maestrelli | clay | 1524 | 104–100 | 204 |
| R. Noguchi | hard | 1637 | 176–123 | 299 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Maestrelli | 2 - 1 |
| April 29, 2021 | M15 Antalya 17 | clay | R. Noguchi | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. P. Varillas | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Milic | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Basing | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used