TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Maestrelli vs M. Basing (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with F. Maestrelli favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Maestrelli | M. Basing |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.4% | 34.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.9% | 41.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Maestrelli | clay | 1524 | 104–100 | 204 |
| M. Basing | hard | 1594 | 75–26 | 101 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
M. Basing leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Basing | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. P. Varillas | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Milic | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Basing | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used