TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Barthel (moneyline) at 2.72 in F. Jones vs M. Barthel (US Open on 2026-08-26). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Jones | M. Barthel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.4% | 60.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.5% | 47.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
61.9% | 38.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Jones | hard | 1671 | 38–30 | 68 |
| M. Barthel | hard | 1665 | 104–78 | 182 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 3, 2026.
F. Jones leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 26, 2026 | US Open | hard | F. Jones | 2 - 1 |
| L | R. Dencheva | 1 - 2 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | R. Serban | 2 - 0 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 2 - 0 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 1 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | J. Garland | 2 - 0 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | R. Zelnickova | 2 - 0 | Sept. 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Ferro | 2 - 0 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 0 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| L | E. Yaneva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 6, 2026 |
All Aug. 26, 2026 results & picks →