TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Barthel (moneyline) at 2.72 in F. Jones vs M. Barthel (US Open on 2026-08-26). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Jones | M. Barthel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.4% | 60.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.5% | 47.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
61.9% | 38.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Jones | hard | 1671 | 38–30 | 68 |
| M. Barthel | hard | 1607 | 106–82 | 188 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 16, 2026 | Ljubljana | clay | M. Barthel | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 26, 2026 | US Open | hard | F. Jones | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. V. Leme Da Silva | 0 - 1 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Souza | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | M. F. Urrutia | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Galfi | 2 - 0 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| W | F. Jorge | 0 - 2 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| L | T. J. Brockmann | 0 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Dudeney | 2 - 1 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Hietaranta | 0 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Newberry | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All Aug. 26, 2026 results & picks →