TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Jones vs L. Jeanjean (Contrexeville on 2026-07-09) — the market is efficient, with F. Jones favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Jones | L. Jeanjean |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.9% | 43.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.1% | 38.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Jones | clay | 1786 | 126–51 | 177 |
| L. Jeanjean | clay | 1691 | 111–70 | 181 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | Contrexeville | clay | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 1 |
| March 30, 2025 | W75 Vacaria | clay | F. Jones | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Rame | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Ciric Bagaric | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Paquet | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | F. Ferro | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Zhu | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | A. Tubello | 2 - 1 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
All July 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used