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F. Jones vs F. Urgesi — Prediction & Analysis

Rome · Rome - 1/8-finals · July 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Jones vs F. Urgesi (Rome on 2026-07-15) — the market is efficient, with F. Jones favoured at 1.36.

Surface clay Odds F. Jones 1.36 · F. Urgesi 2.84

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: F. Jones · F. Urgesi · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ F. Jones vs F. Urgesi — Rome (clay), 1/8-finals ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Odds: Jones 1.36 (impl 67.6%) | Urgesi 2.84 (impl 35.2%)
  ELO: 68.9% Jones (agrees with market)
  ML: 59.3% Jones (disagrees ~8pts toward Urgesi)
  Value pick: A, edge +1.3% (thin)

RECENT FORM
  Jones (A):
  - 07-13 Rome R16 W vs Spiteri (1465, Weak) 1-6 6-1 6-0 — dropped 1st set to Weak
  - 07-09 Contrexeville L vs Jeanjean (1676, Strong) 6-1 4-6 5-7 GRIND-loss
  - 07-07 Contrexeville W vs Rame (1481, Weak) 6-2 7-5
  - 06-29 Wimbledon L vs Parry (1723, Strong)
  - 06-22 Eastbourne L vs Ostapenko (1728, Strong)
  Pattern: playing a tier up — losses almost all to Strong (Parry/Ostapenko/Siegemund/Bouzkova); beat Haddad Maia at RG. Wobbly vs weak fields (L to Gibson 1513, Kotliar 1503).

  Urgesi (B):
  - 07-13 Rome R16 W vs Kotliar (1490, Weak) 6-3 6-0 DOM
  - 07-09 The Hague L vs Rus (1545, Avg)
  - 07-07 The Hague W vs Ciric Bagaric (1430, Weak) 6-4 6-1 DOM
  - 06-24 Tarvisio L vs Tsygourova (1425, Weak)
  - 06-09 Modena L vs Zidansek (1708, Strong)
  Pattern: W35/W75 level; DOM only vs Weak, loses to Weak/Avg regularly. TITLE: W75 Caserta 38d ago (clay).

FATIGUE
  Jones: 3 matches / 9 sets / 314min court time (7d), avg 104min — all grinds
  Urgesi: 3 matches / 9 sets / 259min (7d)
  Diff 55min — slight edge Urgesi, under 60min threshold. Neither well rested.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none (Urgesi's last final 38d ago; Jones none)
  Venue: Urgesi 3-1 where "Rome" appears (incl. May ITF Rome title run); Jones 1-0
  Venue amplifies an existing edge only — Urgesi has no edge vs this opponent class to amplify.

VERDICT: PASS
  ML disagrees with market toward Urgesi, but qualitative read validates the market: opponent-quality analysis clearly favors Jones (loses only to Strong; Urgesi loses to Weak/Avg). ELO sides with market. A-side value edge 1.3% is noise. alt_markets null — no stakeable AH/total. No bet.

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