TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Jones vs A. Rame (Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualification on 2026-07-31) — the market is efficient, with F. Jones favoured at 1.07.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Jones | A. Rame |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
85.1% | 14.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
84.7% | 15.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.2% | 45.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
78.0% | 22.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
86.9% | 13.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
F. Jones leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31, 2026 | Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualification | clay | F. Jones | 2 - 0 |
| July 7, 2026 | Contrexeville | clay | F. Jones | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Rame | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Ciric Bagaric | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Paquet | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | F. Ferro | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Rouvroy | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Struplova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Ibragimova | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Tikhonova | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
All July 31, 2026 results & picks →
F. Jones (A, rk101, age25) vs A. Rame (B, rk191, age28) — Targu Mures Qualification QF, clay
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO A 0.851 | ML A 0.847 | brief-model A 0.780 | resim A 0.542
Book A 1.07 / B 7.1 | Betfair A 1.13 / B 6.8 (implied A ~0.887 exch)
value_pick B edge 0.089 (driven by low brief-model, itself sim-contaminated)
MODEL DISAGREEMENT — WHICH IS RIGHT?
The point-by-point resim says 54/46 (near coin-flip): Jones spw .591 / Rame spw .58,
matchup-adjusted serve .571 vs .563 — essentially equal. That is clearly WRONG here:
- Jones stats depressed by grass-loss stretch inside the 50-match window (Ostapenko
6-2 6-2, Siegemund 6-2 6-3, RG 0-6). Rame stats inflated by weak 1500-level ITF fields.
- Reality: Jones rk101 vs Rame rk191; Jones on a 12+ match clay win streak having just
won BACK-TO-BACK titles (Rome F beat Bronzetti 1718 6-3 6-1 DOM; Palermo F beat Ferro 6-0 4-6 7-6).
- H2H: Jones beat Rame 6-2 7-5 on CLAY on 07-07 (3.5wks ago).
=> ELO/ML (~0.85) is the credible estimate; the sim is contaminated and NOT trustworthy.
RECENT FORM (last 5)
Jones: W 7-5 6-3 (Ciric Bagaric 1409); W 6-0 1-6 6-0 (Paquet 1500); W Palermo-F 6-0 4-6 7-6
(Ferro 1650); W 6-3 6-4 (Ibragimova 1618); W 4-6 6-3 6-2 (Ruggeri 1619). SHARPENING but
many 3-setters (drops sets, grinds back). Level-dropper crushing weak clay fields.
Rame: W 6-2 6-4 (Rouvroy 1500); W 6-2 5-7 6-1 (Struplova 1500); L 6-0 6-4 (Ibragimova);
W 6-1 6-2 (Tikhonova 1361); L 1-6 5-7 (Noha Akugue). Match-sharp at Targu but weak field;
lost to Jones on clay recently. STABLE-to-FADING.
PATH & FATIGUE
Jones match-sharp (deep run), but heavy load: 10 matches/14d, 920 court-min, 5 back-to-back.
Won 07-30 as a 2-SET match (7-5 6-3) -> no 3-set hangover haircut; not an extreme spot;
age 25 baseline. Cumulative load = CONTEXT only, not an edge, and cannot enter a cover thesis.
Rame lighter (4 matches/14d, 345 min). No extreme fatigue spot either side.
NARRATIVE
Jones let-down risk: won Palermo Final 07-26 (5d ago) = WEAK letdown, plus deep into Targu now.
TITLE: Palermo/Rome titles very recent (clay). No surface transition (both on clay).
MARKET CHOICE
ML: Jones @1.13 (eff 1.123) -> edge 0.85 - 0.890 = NEGATIVE. No value. Rame @6.8: true prob
~0.15 (ELO/ML), priced 0.147 -> no edge; the 0.089 "value" rests on contaminated sim. PASS.
Totals: mkt 18.5 (O 2.02 / U 1.87). Sim over-lean comes from wrongly modelling a competitive
match (expected margin 0.6g); with Jones actually dominant the total is genuinely two-sided
(2-set blowout -> under; her frequent 3-setters -> over). Anchor contaminated -> no defensible edge.
Handicap: Jones -6.5 @2.06 / Rame +6.5 @1.83. |line|=6.5 => high-variance tier (needs 10% edge).
Sim cover numbers (Rame +3.5 covers .62) inflate Rame's cover because the sim underrates Jones;
true Jones margin is larger, so Rame's +6.5 cover is lower than sim shows and cannot be pinned.
H2H margin was only +6 (would cover +6.5) but Jones posts 6-0/6-1 sets vs weak fields -> too
uncertain for a 10% edge claim. No defensible anchor. PASS.
AH: B +6.5 @ 1.83 (not staked; sim anchor contaminated).
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no numeric model-vs-market edge survives once the contaminated sim is
discounted; ML has none, alt anchors are unreliable.
G2 consensus: stake-tier only — n/a (no bet).
G3 fatal-risk: n/a (no margin bet staked).
VERDICT: PASS. Jones is a credible ~85% favourite (ELO/ML, H2H, form) priced fairly at 1.13 —
no ML value. The alt-market edges all trace to a point-by-point sim that wrongly models the match
as a coin-flip (stale grass stats for Jones, weak-field stats for Rame), so none is defensible.
No clean, articulable edge on any market.