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F. Jones vs A. Ibragimova — Prediction & Analysis

Palermo · Palermo - Semi-finals · July 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Jones vs A. Ibragimova (Palermo on 2026-07-25) — the market is efficient, with F. Jones favoured at 1.38.

Surface clay Odds F. Jones 1.38 · A. Ibragimova 2.92

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: F. Jones · A. Ibragimova · head-to-head record

Full analysis

MATCH: F. Jones vs A. Ibragimova - Palermo SF, clay
MODELS: ELO 71.1% A | ML 66.9% A | market (Betfair) 1.47/3.05 -> ~68.0% A. Book 1.38/2.92 is staler than exchange; edge computed vs Betfair.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; full 90d used)
Jones (25, rank 101) - 11-match clay win streak:
  07-24 Palermo QF  W Ruggeri (1619, Avg)   4-6 6-3 6-2  (3-set win)
  07-23 Palermo R16 W Bulgaru (1482, Weak)  6-3 6-2      DOM
  07-21 Palermo R32 W Astakhova (1632, Avg) 6-3 6-2      DOM
  07-19 Rome FINAL  W Bronzetti (1718, Strong) 6-3 6-1   DOM
  07-18 Rome SF     W Trevisan (1594, Avg)  3 sets
Ibragimova (21, rank 328) - 3-0 this week incl. two Strong scalps:
  07-24 Palermo QF  W Burel (1659, Strong)  3-6 7-6(5) 6-4  GRIND (TB)
  07-23 Palermo R16 W Rame (1475, Weak)     6-0 6-4     DOM
  07-21 Palermo R32 W Zidansek (1734, Strong) 3 sets
  07-16 Iasi R16    L Badosa (1816, Elite)  3 tight sets
  07-14 Iasi R32    W Salkova (1573, Avg)   straights

FATIGUE: court time 726 vs 720 min, matches_14d 8 vs 7 -> roughly equal (diff <30min, <=1 match). Jones 25 (baseline), Ibragimova 21 (fast recovery). No fatigue lever either way.

NARRATIVE: TITLE: Rome 6d ago (clay) for Jones - live form elite, and she has already won 3 at Palermo since, so letdown window (WEAK) is moot. No surface transition (clay-to-clay). Venue: both 3-0 at this event.
ELO vs rank sanity: Ibragimova ranked 328 but beating Strong opponents (Zidansek, Burel) and pushing Badosa this month - ELO likely UNDERSTATES her; discount the ELO edge on Jones. That kills the thin A-side ML case rather than creating a B case.

MARKETS
- ML A: 0.7105 vs 0.6913 eff (1.47 Betfair, 5% comm) = +1.9%; ML model 0.669 is BELOW market. No edge; min odds 1.48 not available.
- ML B: 0.331 (ML model) vs 0.339 eff = negative.
- Total 20.5: sim over 0.547 vs 0.528 eff @1.94 = +1.9%. Below bar.
- Handicap B +3.5 @2.14 (tight tier): sim cover 0.599 vs 0.480 eff = ~+12% numeric - best candidate, gated below.

GATES (candidate: Ibragimova +3.5 @2.14)
  G1 edge-origin: [PASS] - sim cover 0.599 vs market 0.480 eff, numeric pre-narrative.
  G2 consensus:   [FAIL] - market prices A covers ~54% and hard live evidence sides with it: Jones straight-set wins run +7/+8 games (6-3 6-2 x2, 6-3 6-1); lone sim signal against market.
  G3 fatal-risk:  [FAIL] - backed dog own recent loss margins negate the cover: Blois F -5, Nice (Burel) -9, Kursumlijska -8; when she loses at this level she does not reliably stay inside 3.5.

Margin rule: cover thesis has zero supporting margin-specific evidence (no H2H, clay widens margins, Jones a blowout-artist when winning, dog loss distribution poor). Sim edge is a lone signal contradicted by scoreline data.

VERDICT: PASS. Winner market is efficient (ELO discounted by rank sanity, ML agrees with exchange); the only numeric edge (B +3.5) fails G2 and G3 on margin evidence. No stake.

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