TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Barthel +4.5 (game handicap) at 2.10 in F. Ferro vs M. Barthel (Montreux on 2026-09-08). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Ferro | M. Barthel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.8% | 34.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.2% | 30.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.1% | 50.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.4% | 38.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
73.2% | 26.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ferro | clay | 1745 | 81–55 | 136 |
| M. Barthel | clay | 1581 | 66–67 | 133 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 1, 2026.
F. Ferro leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 8, 2026 | Montreux | clay | F. Ferro | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 8, 2025 | Limoges | hard | F. Ferro | 2 - 1 |
| March 14, 2024 | W75 Ricany | hard | M. Barthel | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Maria | 2 - 1 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Mandlik | 2 - 1 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Reami | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Johnson | 2 - 1 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| L | T. J. Brockmann | 0 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Dudeney | 2 - 1 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Hietaranta | 0 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Newberry | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All Sept. 8, 2026 results & picks →