TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Diaz Acosta vs A. Galarneau (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with A. Galarneau favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Diaz Acosta | A. Galarneau |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.8% | 75.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.0% | 71.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
24.8% | 75.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.7% | 72.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Diaz Acosta | clay | 1816 | 188–98 | 286 |
| A. Galarneau | hard | 1616 | 151–116 | 267 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
A. Galarneau leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Galarneau | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 4, 2024 | Montreal | hard | A. Galarneau | 2 - 0 |
| W | M. Poljicak | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | J. C. Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | F. Forti | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | V. Kopriva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Zink | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | K. Uchida | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used