TENNISEDGE.GG

F. Coria vs V. Sachko — Prediction & Analysis

Kitzbuhel · · July 18, 2026 · 13:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Coria vs V. Sachko (Kitzbuhel on 2026-07-18) — the market is efficient, with V. Sachko favoured at 1.40.

Surface clay Odds F. Coria 2.73 · V. Sachko 1.40

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: F. Coria · V. Sachko · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ F. Coria vs V. Sachko — Kitzbuhel (clay) ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Odds: Coria 2.73 (impl 33.9%) | Sachko 1.40 (impl 71.4%)
  ELO: Coria 41.7% | ML: Coria 46.9% | Blend: Coria 38.5% (value_edge +4.6% on A)
  Alignment: both models price Coria above market — nominal model edge on the dog.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
  Coria (4W-6L in window, 0 DOM wins, 4 GRIND wins, all vs Weak/Avg):
    07-12 Bastad SF — Lost T. Daniel (1706, Strong) 0-6 2-6 (blowout)
    07-09 Liege qual — Lost G. Den Ouden (1500, Avg) in 3
    07-07 Liege qual — Won G. Blancaneaux (1500, Avg) 7-6 1-0 GRIND (ret.)
    06-24 Wimbledon SF — Lost S. Sakellaridis (1597, Avg)
    06-22 Wimbledon QF — Won O. Bonding (1296, Weak) 7-6 6-2 GRIND
  Sachko (7W-8L in window, wins incl. Strong scalps):
    07-12 Gstaad FINAL — Lost T. Skatov (1607, Avg)
    07-11 Gstaad SF — Won M. Dhamne (1335, Weak)
    06-22 Wimbledon QF — Lost S. Mochizuki (1671, Strong)
    06-13 Bratislava SF — Lost A. Shevchenko (1688, Strong)
    06-12 Bratislava QF — Won P. Brunclik (1607, Avg)
    (deeper: Won Kokkinakis 1751 ret., Won Kopriva 1768 GRIND — real Strong-opponent wins)

FATIGUE
  Coria: 3 matches/14d, 260 court-min, last played 07-12
  Sachko: 2 matches/14d, 188 court-min, 1 back-to-back, last played 07-12
  Diff 72 min > 60 → Coria (the model-value side) is the fatigue-disadvantaged one.

NARRATIVE
  Sachko: Lost Gstaad Final 0-3d before this → NOTE (mild, lost-final letdown is weak signal).
  Coria: no title/venue signal; no Kitzbuhel history in window for either.

VERDICT — PASS
  Model edge on Coria (+4.6-13 pts vs market) fails every qualitative check:
  zero DOM wins, all wins are tiebreak grinds vs Weak/Avg, fresh 0-6 2-6 blowout,
  loss to a 1500 qualifier, and the heavier 14-day court-time load. Sachko's ledger
  has genuine Strong-opponent wins and a final run; his mild lost-final letdown is
  not enough to make 2.73 on this version of Coria playable, and 1.40 on Sachko is
  short of the model (~61.5%). No alt markets priced. No bet.

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