TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Coria vs T. Daniel (Bastad on 2026-07-12) — the market is efficient, with T. Daniel favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Coria | T. Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.6% | 64.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
21.3% | 78.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.2% | 66.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.7% | 72.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
T. Daniel leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2026 | Bastad | clay | T. Daniel | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 5, 2019 | Genova | clay | T. Daniel | 2 - 0 |
| L | F. Forti | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | V. Sachko | 0 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | T. Daniel | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | G. Den Ouden | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | G. Blancaneaux | 1 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | K. Jacquet | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. C. Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | C. Sanchez Jover | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | F. Coria | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All July 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used