TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Auger-Aliassime vs M. Zheng (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03) — the market is efficient, with F. Auger-Aliassime favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Auger-Aliassime | M. Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.1% | 51.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.7% | 22.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
65.2% | 34.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.2% | 18.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
| M. Zheng | hard | 1772 | 67–35 | 102 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
F. Auger-Aliassime leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 0 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Kecmanovic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Landaluce | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
All July 3, 2026 results & picks →
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F. Auger-Aliassime vs M. Zheng — Wimbledon (grass) 1/16-finals
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MODELS
Market : FAA 81.2% (1.16) | Zheng 18.8% (5.00) — value_pick B, edge +11.7%
ELO : FAA 48.1% (lone outlier, near coinflip / leans Zheng)
ML : FAA 77.7% (agrees with market)
Blend : FAA 69.5%
Bot : BET B 2.5u on ELO/devig edge
FORM
FAA (A): Wimbledon 3-0 vs Prizmic (1476, GRIND, TB), 3-0 vs Shevchenko (1346, DOM).
Reached Halle QF on grass (lost tight 3-set to Tiafoe 1704). Live grass form good.
Zheng (B): Wimbledon W vs Mejia (1666, 4-set GRIND, 2 TBs), W vs Norrie (1674, FIVE-set
GRIND w/ 3 TBs). Pre-Wimbledon grass = poor: lost R16 Nottingham (Mochizuki),
lost R16 Ilkley (Lajal). No dominant wins; every quality win a grind.
FATIGUE
FAA: 377 court-min / 14d, 3 matches, last 07-01 (2d rest).
Zheng: 709 court-min / 14d, 5 matches, back-to-back=1, last 07-01.
Diff 332 min (>>60) → Zheng heavily disadvantaged. The underdog is the gassed one.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none in 7d window.
DATA WARNING: Zheng history lists Wimbledon "Final/SF/QF" 06-22→06-25 — impossible
before a 07-03 1/16-final. Mislabeled rounds likely inflated his ELO, explaining the
stale +33% ELO edge that seeds the "value" pick.
Venue: FAA 2-0 this Wimbledon event; Zheng venue record unreliable (see warning).
VERDICT: PASS
The ELO edge on Zheng is not validated by the qualitative read — it is contradicted.
Zheng is the exhausted side (709 vs 377 min, back-to-back 5-set + 4-set grinds) with
weak pre-slam grass form, while FAA is fresher and cleaner. ML + market consensus
(78% / 81%) is the trustworthy signal; ELO looks stale/corrupted. Fading a heavily
fatigued undergog at 5.00 on a data-inflated rating is a trap, not value. No value on
FAA either (model 69.5% < market 81%). Stand down.
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