TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Auger-Aliassime vs D. Prizmic (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with F. Auger-Aliassime favoured at 1.17.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Auger-Aliassime | D. Prizmic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
81.0% | 19.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.9% | 24.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
80.0% | 20.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
83.9% | 16.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
| D. Prizmic | clay | 1859 | 101–43 | 144 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
F. Auger-Aliassime leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 0 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 1 - 1 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Walton | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | June 26, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: F. Auger-Aliassime vs D. Prizmic — Wimbledon (grass) 1/32-finals MODELS: ELO 0.810 | ML 0.759 | Model 0.800 (all for AAA). Market implied_A 0.84 (devig B 0.161). Value pick B, edge +4.0% after 30% shrinkage, mostly ML-driven; ELO essentially agrees with market. FORM A (AAA): Wimb R64 DOM 6-3 6-1 6-4 vs Shevchenko (1346, Weak). Grass pedigree — Halle QF (lost Tiafoe), beat Tien/Borges. French Open QF run. Big serve, grass is his surface. Arrives fresh off a straight-sets demolition. FORM B (Prizmic): Wimb R64 over Walton (1359, Weak) needed 4 sets, GRIND (6-7 set). Lost London grass SF to Hijikata (1666) 4-6/5-7. Marquee wins — Djokovic (2007), Berrettini, Shelton, Humbert — are ALL on CLAY. Unproven and scratchy on grass. FATIGUE: A 392min/3 matches/14d vs B 285min/2 matches/14d — heavier load on AAA (>60min diff), a slight edge to Prizmic. Both played 29 Jun. Minor factor. NARRATIVE: No let-down (Prizmic last Won Final = Rome 5/05, 56d, clay). Venue n/a (both first Wimbledon match this event). Title recency for Prizmic is clay-bound and stale. VERDICT: The +4% value on Prizmic is a thin statistical artifact at a 6.11 longshot, driven by ML disagreement while ELO tracks the market. The qualitative read CONTRADICTS rather than validates it: AAA is superior on grass (big serve, grass results), off a fresh dominant R64 win, vs a clay-grinder unproven on grass who scraped past a weak opponent. Fatigue edge to Prizmic is too small to overturn the surface/quality gap. No validated edge — PASS.