TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Arnaldi (moneyline) at 1.30 in F. A. Gomez vs M. Arnaldi (Umag on 2026-07-15). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. A. Gomez | M. Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
16.4% | 83.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.2% | 63.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
43.1% | 56.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
16.4% | 83.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.1% | 72.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. A. Gomez | clay | 1620 | 133–83 | 216 |
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1863 | 134–71 | 205 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 14, 2026.
M. Arnaldi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 15, 2026 | Umag | clay | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Zheng | 2 - 1 | Oct. 5, 2026 |
| L | I. Marcondes | 2 - 1 | Sept. 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Svajda | 0 - 2 | Sept. 23, 2026 |
| W | T. Zink | 0 - 2 | Sept. 22, 2026 |
| L | Dar. Blanch | 0 - 2 | Sept. 17, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 1 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 2 | Oct. 19, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 0 - 2 | Oct. 8, 2026 |
All July 15, 2026 results & picks →