TENNISEDGE.GG

E. Yaneva vs S. Lansere — Prediction & Analysis

Rome · Rome - 1/8-finals · July 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Yaneva vs S. Lansere (Rome on 2026-07-15) — the market is efficient, with E. Yaneva favoured at 1.34.

Surface clay Odds E. Yaneva 1.34 · S. Lansere 2.93

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: E. Yaneva · S. Lansere · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ E. Yaneva vs S. Lansere — Rome (clay, 1/8-finals) ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Odds: A 1.34 / B 2.93 (implied A 68.6% margin-adj; raw breakeven 74.6%)
  ELO 74.6% | ML 70.5% | Blended 68.7% → blended model matches market exactly (value edge 0.08%)

RECENT FORM
  Yaneva (A):
  - 07-13 Rome R32: Won O. Selekhmeteva (1646) 6-3 6-2 — DOM vs Avg
  - 06-24 Wimbledon SF: Lost K. Volynets (1500)
  - 06-23 Wimbledon QF: Won L. Miyazaki (1447) 6-2 6-4 — DOM vs Weak
  - 06-20 Brescia SF: Lost M. Sherif (1704)
  - 06-19 Brescia QF: Won E. Gorgodze (1500) in 3 — GRIND
  Pattern: DOM wins vs Avg/Weak, losses only to Strong (1700+). Solid, consistent level.

  Lansere (B):
  - 07-13 Rome R32: Won E. Malygina (1344) in 3 — GRIND vs Weak
  - 07-07 W35 Buzau: Lost R. Dencheva (1584) 6-2 6-0 — blown out by Avg
  - 06-17 W75 Blois: Lost J. Lim (1504) in 3
  - 06-16 W75 Blois: Won Y. Bartashevich (1323) in 3 w/ TB — GRIND vs Weak
  - 06-11 W75 Ceska Lipa: Lost F. Curmi (1570) w/ TB
  Pattern: only beats sub-1400 players, and only in grinds; loses to Avg opposition.

FATIGUE
  A: 1 match/14d, 3 sets, 77 min court time
  B: 2 matches/14d, 6 sets, 186 min court time
  Diff 109 min → Lansere disadvantaged (edge to Yaneva)

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: None either side. Venue: both 1-0 in Rome this event. Title recency: none.

VERDICT — PASS
  Qualitative read fully favors Yaneva (DOM form vs stronger field, fresher legs), and ELO
  (74.6%) sits above market — but 74.6% is exactly the raw breakeven at 1.34. My own number
  lands ~72-74%, i.e. zero-to-negative edge on A ML. Blended model = market to the decimal.
  B side is clearly -EV. No alt_markets priced, so no handicap route for the margin thesis
  (Yaneva DOM vs Lansere's weak-grind profile would have made A -games interesting).
  Right winner, wrong price. Pass.

More from Rome