TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Schoppe vs A. Grubor (Vancouver on 2026-07-25) — the market is efficient, with E. Schoppe favoured at 1.83.
E. Schoppe vs A. Grubor - Vancouver (hard, ITF W-level)
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO: A 42.9% | ML: A 43.4% | Blend: A 45.2% (B ~54.8%)
Book: 1.83 / 1.83 (50/50). Betfair exchange: A 1.62 / B 1.98 (overround ~112%, thin ITF liquidity).
Models lean Grubor; the exchange leans Schoppe. Executable price is the truth: B @1.98,
commission-adjusted 1.93 -> implied 51.8%. Edge for B = 54.8% - 51.8% = +3.0% (< 5% min bar; min 1.92).
ELO/ranking sanity: Schoppe #594, Grubor #733 - both deep ITF, ELOs hover near defaults (many
opponents at exactly 1500). Model probabilities here are low-credibility.
RECENT FORM (5 most recent shown)
Schoppe (24): only 1 match in 90d - 07-21 Lost to K. Mahendran (Avg 1500) 3-6 4-6. Essentially no data.
Grubor (22):
07-23 Lost vs A. Ahn (Weak 1401) 6-4 3-6 6-4 - 3-setter loss to weaker opponent
07-22 Won vs A. Bhopal (Weak 1086) - DOM vs Weak
07-16 Lost vs K. Cross (Avg 1596) in straights
07-14 Won vs R. Smith (Weak 1222) - DOM vs Weak
07-10 Lost vs S. Hosogi (Avg 1500) with a tiebreak - GRIND loss
Pattern across all fetched matches: wins only vs Weak opposition, losses to Avg-level and even
a Weak (1401). No DOM vs Strong/Elite anywhere. Model lean toward Grubor has no live-form backing.
FATIGUE
Schoppe: 1 match/14d, 72 court-min, last played 07-21 (4d rest). Fresh but match-thin.
Grubor: 4 matches/14d, 12 sets, 268 court-min, back-to-back 07-22/23, last played 07-23 (2d rest).
Court-time gap ~196 min -> Grubor disadvantaged; Grubor is 22, recovers fast -> softened one tier
to "slight edge Schoppe". Fatigue is context only, not part of any staked edge.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none (no Finals in either history). Venue: no prior Vancouver matches for either.
Titles: none. Surface transition: Grubor's recent matches on hard, no transition; Schoppe's lone
match surface unknown.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL - model-vs-market edge for Grubor is +3.0% at the executable Betfair price
(1.98 -> eff 1.93), below the 5% minimum before any fatigue/narrative input.
G2 consensus: PASS - ML model agrees with the ELO lean toward B; only the exchange sits against.
G3 fatal-risk: FAIL - the only backable side (Grubor, per models) just lost to a 1401-ELO player,
has lost 3 of her last 5, and carries 268 court-min with a back-to-back; the thesis is negated
by her own form and schedule. Backing Schoppe instead has no numeric edge (exchange already
prices her at 1.62 vs blend 45%).
VERDICT: PASS. Sub-5% edge at the executable price, default-ELO data quality, and a model lean that
live form actively contradicts. Thin-liquidity ITF with no exchange alt-markets - the exact segment
to leave alone.