TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Quinn vs L. Darderi (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with E. Quinn favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Quinn | L. Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.7% | 30.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.0% | 43.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
74.1% | 25.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.9% | 33.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Quinn | hard | 1803 | 112–77 | 189 |
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
E. Quinn leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Quinn | 3 - 0 |
| L | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | June 27, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The consensus model indicates a 4.1% edge for Quinn, but this is entirely driven by ELO ratings; the Machine Learning model sees 0.0% edge, aligning perfectly with the devigged market price. Qualitative factors support the ML model's caution: Quinn is carrying a heavy fatigue load (722 mins in 14 days) and faces a potential letdown spot after losing the Mallorca final just 48 hours ago. With the market 'chasing' Quinn's recent form and the reliable ML model detecting no value, the structural edge is insufficient to warrant a bet.