TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Quinn vs A. Davidovich Fokina (Mallorca on 2026-06-27) — the market is efficient, with A. Davidovich Fokina favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Quinn | A. Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.2% | 58.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Quinn | hard | 1803 | 112–77 | 189 |
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
A. Davidovich Fokina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 27, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | June 27, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 27, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical model identifies a marginal 3% value edge on E. Quinn (2.30 odds), primarily driven by the ML model's weighting of recent quality wins. However, this is contradicted by critical qualitative factors: Quinn has played 126 minutes more tennis than ADF over the last two weeks and faces a 'first final' mental hurdle. The Market Trend analysis explicitly warns that the market is 'chasing' Quinn's form, implying he is over-priced rather than under-priced. With ADF holding a fatigue advantage, home support in Mallorca, and the model edge being slim (3.0%), the risk/reward ratio for a Quinn bet is poor. We side with the favorite to win but find no betting value at 1.61 odds.