TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Navarro vs O. Selekhmeteva (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with E. Navarro favoured at 1.19.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Navarro | O. Selekhmeteva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
83.7% | 16.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
66.7% | 33.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
83.7% | 16.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
80.0% | 20.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Navarro | hard | 1713 | 86–63 | 149 |
| O. Selekhmeteva | clay | 1627 | 102–59 | 161 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
E. Navarro leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Ito | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Yaneva | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Vandromme | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | Y. Kotliar | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ E. Navarro (A) vs O. Selekhmeteva (B) Wimbledon · grass · 1/32-finals · 2026-07-02 ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO A 0.837 | ML A 0.667 | Model A 0.837 Market implied A 0.800 (1.19) / B 0.200 (4.75) Value pick A · edge +3.7% ELO & market broadly agree; ML notably LOWER than market. FORM — NAVARRO (A) [elite grass run] W R1 Wimb vs Badosa 1720 (GRIND 3set) 4-6 6-3 7-5 L Bad Homburg QF vs Ruse 1824 W Bad Homburg vs Swiatek 1990 (Elite scalp!) 5-7 6-2 6-3 W Bad Homburg vs Lys 1565 L Nottingham FINAL vs Bouzkova 1733 (finalist 6/21) + Nottingham deep run, Strasbourg TITLE 5/23 (clay) Beats Strong/Elite; genuine top-tier form. FORM — SELEKHMETEVA (B) W R1 Wimb vs Kraus 1541 (6-1 7-5) L Eastbourne FINAL vs Zakharova 1651 (tight 3set, finalist 6/21) W Eastbourne SF vs Rakhimova 1666 L Nottingham SF vs Preston 1486 Wins mostly vs Avg/Weak; class gap to Navarro. FATIGUE *** KEY FACTOR *** Navarro : 8 matches/14d, 24 sets/7d, 662min court, back-to-back 4 days, last 6/30 (yesterday) Selekhmet.: 3 matches/14d, 260min court, 1 match/7d, well rested Verdict: >60min court-time gap → Navarro HEAVILY disadvantaged on freshness. Fresh dog. NARRATIVE Let-down: both lost finals 6/21 (11d ago) → WEAK, neutral. Title recency (Navarro): Strasbourg 39d ago (clay) — surface mismatch, low weight. Venue: neither with meaningful Wimbledon history in window. VERDICT — PASS Navarro is the clearly better player and rightful favorite, but at 1.19 you need ~84% and only ELO gets there. ML (0.667) flags the price is thin, and Navarro carries a severe workload (8m/14d, 4 straight days, 24 sets) against a fresh opponent. Fatigue erodes the tiny 3.7% edge at short odds. No value on Navarro at 1.19; dog is too weak to back. No bet. ═══════════════════════════════════════════