TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Navarro vs M. Kostyuk (Wimbledon on 2026-07-04) — the market is efficient, with M. Kostyuk favoured at 1.76.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Navarro | M. Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
73.6% | 26.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.6% | 57.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.6% | 26.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
44.2% | 55.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Navarro | hard | 1713 | 86–63 | 149 |
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1904 | 118–72 | 190 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
E. Navarro leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 1 |
| June 22, 2025 | Bad Homburg | grass | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 |
| June 16, 2025 | Berlin | grass | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 30, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | Toronto | hard | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 4, 2026 results & picks →
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E. Navarro vs M. Kostyuk — Wimbledon 1/16 (grass)
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MODELS
ELO : Navarro 73.6% (value pick A, edge +0.29)
ML : Navarro 42.7% (Kostyuk 57.3%)
Blend : Navarro 58.1% | conf LOW
Market: Navarro 2.22 (44.2%) | Kostyuk 1.76 (55.8%)
--> ELO vs Market disagree hard; ML AGREES with market on Kostyuk.
FORM
Navarro (grass, red-hot but grinding):
W vs Selekhmeteva 1551 3-6 6-4 6-1 GRIND (3s)
W vs Badosa 1720 4-6 6-3 7-5 GRIND (3s, Strong)
L vs Ruse 1824 4-6 2-6
W vs Swiatek 1990 7-5 2-6 6-3 GRIND (3s, ELITE win)
W vs Lys 1565 7-6 6-3
Nottingham FINAL lost 06-21 (13d ago) | Strasbourg TITLE 05-23
Kostyuk (fresh, weak surface):
W vs Blinkova 1644 6-7 6-3 6-3 GRIND (3s)
W vs Podoroska 1454 6-1 6-2 DOM
RG SF run (beat Svitolina, Swiatek) + Madrid TITLE 05-02
FATIGUE <-- decisive
Navarro: 8 matches / 24 sets / 639 court-min in 14d, B2B 4 days, played 07-02
Kostyuk: 2 matches / 6 sets / 148 court-min in 14d, well-rested-ish
Court-time diff >490min --> Navarro heavily disadvantaged.
Every Navarro win is a 3-set grind = maximum energy burn.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Navarro LOST Nottingham Final 13d ago -> stale, no fresh peak.
Kostyuk: no title let-down; Madrid title was 05-02 (60d).
Venue: neutral (both R32 winners here).
VERDICT: PASS
The ELO value on Navarro (2.22) is a fatigue mirage — her grass ELO is
inflated by a brutal grind that is now a liability, not an edge. ML +
market both land on the fresher, higher-tier Kostyuk, but at 1.76 there
is no exploitable price. No side offers real value. Pass.
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