TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Moller vs T. Faurel (Bastad on 2026-07-12) — the market is efficient, with E. Moller favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Moller | T. Faurel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
77.9% | 22.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.0% | 48.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
71.7% | 28.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.9% | 22.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.8% | 39.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
T. Faurel leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2026 | Bastad | clay | T. Faurel | 2 - 0 |
| W | J. Mackenzie | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Mackenzie | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Topo | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Faurel | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | P. Basile | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used