TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Mertens vs E. Rybakina (Wimbledon on 2026-07-04) — the market is efficient, with E. Rybakina favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Mertens | E. Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.2% | 58.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.4% | 59.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.7% | 63.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
21.7% | 78.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Mertens | hard | 1855 | 118–77 | 195 |
| E. Rybakina | hard | 2149 | 174–69 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
E. Rybakina leads 7–1 over 8 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 26, 2026 | WTA Australian Open | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 12, 2025 | Cincinnati | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 1 |
| June 1, 2024 | WTA French Open | clay | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 4, 2024 | WTA Brisbane | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Boisson | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
All July 4, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════════ E. Mertens (A) vs E. Rybakina (B) — Wimbledon, grass, R32 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO prob_A 0.412 | ML prob_A 0.404 | Serve/Return 0.476 Blend prob_A 0.367 → favors RYBAKINA (B) ~63% Market: A 4.50 (22%) / B 1.25 (78%) → value_pick A, edge +15.0% Alignment: all three models sit well ABOVE market on Mertens. Disagreement is large but one-directional (surface-driven, see verdict). FORM — MERTENS (grass, last 90d): patchy W v Timofeeva 2-6 6-3 6-0 (1563, comeback GRIND) W v Siegemund 6-2 6-4 (1634) L v Osaka (1644) | L v Bartunkova (1759) | L v Ruse (1702) Bright spots: DOM v Eala 6-3 6-3 (1875), comeback v Samsonova (1791) Three grass losses to sub-1760 opponents this season = weak grass signal. FORM — RYBAKINA (grass + recent): elite ceiling W v McNally 6-1 6-2 (1747, DOM last match) W v Boisson 6-4 1-6 6-3 (1420, dropped set) L v Eala 5-7 4-6 (1860) | L v Boulter (QF London) Stuttgart TITLE 19-Apr (beat Andreeva, Muchova) — pedigree confirmed. Former Wimbledon champion; elite serve that grass amplifies. FATIGUE — roughly equal Both last played 02-Jul, 2 days rest into 04-Jul. Mertens 4m/248min-14d (3-setter last); Rybakina 3m/202min-14d. Slight physical load on Mertens, not decisive. NARRATIVE Let-down: none in window (Rybakina title 75d ago — too old). Venue: Rybakina is a Wimbledon champion; grass is her best surface. Title recency: TITLE Stuttgart 75d ago (clay) — stale, discount. VERDICT — PASS The +15% model edge on Mertens is a surface mirage. ELO/ML are dragged by Rybakina's poor CLAY stretch (FO R32, Berlin) and do not price her grass-specific serve dominance. On grass Rybakina is correctly a heavy favorite: she DOM'd her last match 6-1 6-2 while Mertens lost to three sub-1760 players on the surface. Live grass form outweighs the surface-agnostic model edge. No validated underdog value at 4.50 — pass. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════