TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. McDonald vs E. Kalieva (Wimbledon on 2026-06-23) — the market is efficient, with E. Kalieva favoured at 1.55.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. McDonald | E. Kalieva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.5% | 38.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.8% | 50.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.2% | 58.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. McDonald | hard | 1417 | 65–60 | 125 |
| E. Kalieva | hard | 1684 | 90–84 | 174 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 15, 2026.
E. Kalieva leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Du Pree | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Klugman | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Wainwright | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | L. Sun | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Sebov | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Dolehide | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
All June 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used