TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Lys vs E. Navarro (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with E. Navarro favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Lys | E. Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.2% | 78.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.3% | 69.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Lys | hard | 1782 | 89–49 | 138 |
| E. Navarro | hard | 1713 | 86–63 | 149 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
E. Navarro leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 1 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus indicates a marginal 0.9% edge on Lys, supported by the Market-Elo trend showing the market is aggressively chasing Navarro's recent form (+45 drift) despite her heavy fatigue from a 3-set final just 48 hours ago. While the qualitative factors (fatigue and overpricing) align with the mathematical lean toward the underdog, Lys's dismal 5-10 record over the last 180 days presents an unacceptable risk. Consequently, the Kelly criterion correctly suggests 0 units, and the prudent action is to pass on this low-confidence value spot.