TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Kalieva vs T. Gibson (Birmingham on 2026-06-01) — the market is efficient, with T. Gibson favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Kalieva | T. Gibson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.6% | 67.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
13.5% | 86.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
23.1% | 76.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.7% | 66.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Kalieva | hard | 1684 | 90–84 | 174 |
| T. Gibson | hard | 1825 | 179–94 | 273 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
T. Gibson leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1, 2026 | Birmingham | grass | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 |
| March 3, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | T. Gibson | 2 - 1 |
| July 16, 2025 | W75 Granby | hard | T. Gibson | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Sebov | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Dolehide | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
All June 1, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used