TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Jacquemot vs C. Y. Lee (Warsaw on 2026-08-04) — the market is efficient, with C. Y. Lee favoured at 1.45.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Jacquemot | C. Y. Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.8% | 61.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.8% | 47.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.5% | 56.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.3% | 65.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Jacquemot | hard | 1619 | 102–82 | 184 |
| C. Y. Lee | hard | 1723 | 86–33 | 119 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
C. Y. Lee leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 4, 2026 | Warsaw | hard | C. Y. Lee | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Y. Lee | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | T. J. Brockmann | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | I. D. Amariei | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | E. Jacquemot | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Podrez | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | P. Hon | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | K. Okamura | 0 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
All Aug. 4, 2026 results & picks →
=== Jacquemot (A) vs C. Y. Lee (B) -- Warsaw, HARD, 1/16-finals ===
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO_a 38.8pct (favors Lee) | ML_a 49.4pct (coin flip) | blend 43.5pct
Market implied_a 34.3pct (Betfair 2.78 / 1.46). value_pick A, edge ~9pct.
ELO and ML disagree by ~10pts -> path/shape is the tiebreaker.
ELO/rank note: Lee ranked 208 but ELO-favorite -> rating partly FARMED at
W50/ITF events; but live form independently backs her level, so ELO stands.
RECENT FORM (most-recent 5)
Jacquemot (rank 56): L Sherif 1837 6-2 6-3 (clay) | W Brockmann 1463 |
L Burel 1638 6-1 6-1 (blown out) | W Amariei 1435 w/ TB (grind vs weak) |
L Zantedeschi 1543 6-1 6-2 (blown out). SHAPE: FADING hard - a top-60
player run off court by sub-1650 opponents. All recent = clay; this
match HARD -> clay-to-hard TRANSITION (depressed level, wider margins).
C. Y. Lee (rank 208): L Bouzkova 1851 7-5 6-4 (competitive) | W Podrez 1588 |
W Hon (Prague clay title) | W Okamura | earlier: HARD W50 Corroios title -
SF DOM 6-1 6-1 over Jorge 1625, final over Gao 1651. SHAPE: SHARPENING,
deeply match-sharp (two recent titles incl. a hard-court W50).
PATH / FATIGUE
Both ~11-12 days since last match (A 07-23, B 07-22). No extreme spot,
rest ~equal -> no fatigue edge either way. Lee is the played-in, timing-
grooved side; Jacquemot returns off a clay losing streak onto hard.
NARRATIVE
Jacquemot reached an Eastbourne final in June, then collapsed (blowout
losses to average opponents). Lee riding a hot hard+clay title streak.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: PASS(numeric) but UNCONFIRMED - the 9pct model edge on A
rests on ranking/class her live form flatly contradicts.
G2 consensus: STAKE-TIER - only ML (barely) supports A; ELO + blend favor
Lee. Contaminated/lone signal.
G3 fatal-risk: n/a (ML), does not block.
VERDICT - PASS. Meaningful model-market disagreement exists (blend 43.5pct vs
market 34pct), but the required independent qualitative validation is ABSENT
and in fact CONTRADICTS the value pick: Jacquemot is a FADING dog (repeated
blowouts to sub-1650) transitioning clay-to-hard, while Lee is SHARPENING and
match-sharp (hard-court title winner). Market 1.46/2.78 correctly prices live
reality over the ranking gap. No value on Lee either (1.46 needs 0.696 true;
even ELO gives 0.61). Pass both sides.