TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Cocciaretto vs C. Tauson (Washington on 2026-07-27) — the market is efficient, with C. Tauson favoured at 1.53.
E. Cocciaretto (A) vs C. Tauson (B) — WTA Washington, hard, 1/16-finals
═══ MODELS vs MARKET ═══
Book: A 2.50 / B 1.53 (implied A 38.0%)
Exchange: A 3.40 / B 1.40 (Betfair — executable; implied A ~29.4%, B ~72.5%)
ELO: A 49.7% ML: A 34.0% Sim(resim): A 60.6%
Models are scattered. ELO and the sim like Cocciaretto; ML and the exchange price
her as a clear dog. The book (2.50) is soft vs the exchange (3.40) — exchange is the
truth, so the book "value" on A is a stale quote, not an edge.
═══ ELO / SIM RELIABILITY (divergence → suspect inputs) ═══
Sim win-prob A = 60.6% (spw .591/rpw .434 vs Tauson spw .580/rpw .425) does NOT
converge with ELO (49.7%), ML (34%), or the exchange (29%). Per convergence test,
the sim inputs are suspect, not a betting anchor: Cocciaretto's serve/return numbers
are stale/farmed off her clay wins and NOT surface/opponent-adjusted, while she is
ranked 41, rusty and off-surface now. ELO-favourite yet #41 and priced 3.40 = an
inflated rating. Discount the ELO/sim edge; do not lean on it.
═══ RECENT FORM (most-recent 5) ═══
Cocciaretto (A) — FADING, rusty, surface transition:
06-29 Wimb grass L Xin.Wang(1811) 6-3 2-6 6-2 (3-set L)
06-22 Eastb grass L Tomljanovic(1746) 6-2 6-7 7-5 (3-set GRIND L)
05-26 FO clay L Korneeva(1592) 6-3 6-3 (L to Avg)
05-10 Rome clay L Swiatek(2031) 1-6 0-6 (blown out)
05-08 Rome clay W Navarro(1722) 6-3 6-3 (DOM vs Strong)
-> Last match 06-29 = 28 days ago (RUST RISK, >21d). Last surfaces grass/clay ->
TRANSITION onto hard (depressed level + WIDER margin variance). 2-4 window,
only wins were clay in early May. Shape: FADING (1-6 0-6 to Swiatek, grass Ls).
Tauson (B) — SHARPENING on hard, match-sharp:
07-18 Athens hard L Krejcikova(1857) 1-6 6-4 3-6 (competitive 3-set L vs Strong)
07-17 Athens hard W Bejlek(1757) 6-2 6-3 (DOM vs Strong)
07-16 Athens hard W Tona(1500) 6-4 6-0 (DOM vs Weak)
07-14 Athens hard W Hibino(1500) 7-5 6-4 (win vs Weak)
06-30 Wimb grass L Sakkari(1600) 6-3 6-3
-> PATH: 4 matches at Athens on HARD (semi-final run), conditions grooved =
match-sharp on the exact surface. Higher ranked (#18 vs #41). Shape SHARPENING
on hard (6-2 6-3 DOM vs Strong Bejlek).
═══ FATIGUE (Step 2 calibration) ═══
A: 0 matches in 14d — rested but that reads as RUST here (28d idle), not freshness.
B: 14d load 4 matches / 305 min / b2b 2 — BUT last match 07-18 = 9 days ago,
matches_7d 0. No extreme spot (not yesterday, not 3-in-3-now). Cumulative minutes
are CONTEXT only; she has had 9 days to recover. Age 23 = baseline. No fatigue
penalty for B. Market has NOT drifted B on a fatigue story (1.40 clear fav) — no
fatigue-value spot to exploit.
═══ NARRATIVE ═══
Let-down: none (no recent Final for either). Venue: neither has Washington history in
window. Title recency: none. Surface transition: Cocciaretto grass->hard = RISK for
any A cover (looser margins cut both ways). Live event evidence favours B (Athens hard
semi) and runs against A.
═══ MARKET SCAN (executable prices, commission-adj 0.95) ═══
A ML @3.40: eff-implied 30.5%. ELO edge +19% (inflated, discounted); ML edge +3.5%
(below 5% bar); min_odds @p=.34 is 3.09. No trustworthy edge.
B ML @1.40: eff-implied 72.5% vs ML 66% -> edge -6.5%. Price rich, no value.
Totals @21.0 (sim interp over ~50.3% / under ~49.7%): Over edge -0.5%, Under -3.4%.
Efficient, no edge.
Handicap A+4.5 @1.80 / B-4.5 @2.14: model.handicap null; resim distribution is anchored
on the UNRELIABLE A-favoured sim (A +1.5 expected margin) that diverges from every
other signal — no coherent cover anchor exists. A+4.5 cover also carries the rust +
grass->hard transition blowout risk (she went 1-6 0-6 cold vs Swiatek). B-4.5 is a
wide/high-variance lay needing a blowout B is not reliably capable of (tight 3-setters
vs Krejcikova, 7-5 sets vs Hibino). No disciplined handicap bet.
GATES
G1 edge-origin: FAIL — only numeric edge on A is from ELO/sim, which diverge from
ML+market and are inflated/stale (farmed off clay); no reliable model-vs-market gap.
G2 consensus: FAIL — exchange AND ML both sit against an A bet; live evidence
(Tauson Athens hard semi; Cocciaretto rust + surface transition + fading) runs
AGAINST A, not for it. No hard independent evidence for A.
G3 fatal-risk: FAIL — any A / A+4.5 thesis is negated by rust (28d), grass->hard
transition and blowout-prone fading form; a wider-variance dog cover, not support.
═══ VERDICT: PASS ═══
The lone "value" (A via ELO/sim) is a rating artifact contradicted by ML, the exchange
and the entire qualitative read — classic inflated-ELO dog. Backing B has negative edge
at 1.40. Totals and handicaps offer no coherent edge (sim unreliable here). Tauson is
the rightful favourite (match-sharp on hard, higher class, rested) and is fairly-to-fully
priced. No side offers value. PASS.