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E. Butvilas vs C. Tabur — Prediction & Analysis

Estoril · · July 18, 2026 · 13:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Butvilas vs C. Tabur (Estoril on 2026-07-18) — the market is efficient, with C. Tabur favoured at 1.44.

Surface clay Odds E. Butvilas 2.85 · C. Tabur 1.44

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: E. Butvilas · C. Tabur · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ E. Butvilas vs C. Tabur — Estoril (clay) ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Odds: Butvilas 2.85 (impl 33.6%) | Tabur 1.44 (impl 69.4%)
  ELO: 40.2% A | ML: 35.0% A | Blend: 40.6% A
  Value pick: A, edge +7.0% — but ML model sides with market; only ELO/blend disagree.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
  Butvilas (1-7 last 8):
    07-11 Gstaad SF      L vs Huesler (1548, Avg)   6-4 6-3
    06-30 Brasov R32     L vs Ferreira Silva (1528) 6-3 6-3
    06-22 Wimbledon QF   L vs Echargui (1416, Weak) 3 sets
    06-14 Dublin SF      L vs Hewitt (1495, Weak)   3 sets
    06-04 Tyler R16      L vs Ilagan (1575, Avg)    3-6 4-6
    Only win since early June: Svajda (1604) GRIND 7-6 6-4. Losing to Weak-bracket
    opponents. Geneva/Tunis titles are 60+ days stale.
  Tabur (5-3 last 8):
    07-15 Gstaad R16     L vs Rinderknech (1718, Strong) — 3 TB-tight sets (GRIND)
    07-13 Gstaad R32     W vs Rodionov (1627, Avg)  GRIND 3 sets
    07-12 Gstaad Final   W vs Huesler (1569, Avg)   GRIND (TB)
    07-11 Gstaad SF      W vs Jebens (1223, Weak)   6-3 6-4
    07-07 Braunschweig   L vs Dedura (1655, Strong) 3 sets
    Wimbledon Final run in June incl. W over Y. Bu (1822, Elite).

FATIGUE
  Butvilas: 1 match / 14d, 102 min court time, last match 07-11 → fresh.
  Tabur: 5 matches / 14d, 15 sets, 773 min, 2 back-to-backs, last 07-15.
  Court-time diff ~671 min → Tabur heavily disadvantaged, ~3 days rest mitigates partly.

NARRATIVE
  Tabur: TITLE Gstaad 6d ago (clay) → WEAK letdown window (5-7d). Heavy grind schedule.
  Butvilas: no letdown; no venue history at Estoril for either player.

VERDICT — PASS
  Model-market disagreement exists (ELO/blend +7% on Butvilas) and Tabur's fatigue +
  weak letdown nominally point the same way. But the qualitative form read kills it:
  Butvilas has lost 7 of 8, including to Weak-bracket opponents, and hasn't beaten
  anyone of note since early June. Betting a 2.85 dog in that form on an ELO edge
  anchored to 60-day-old titles fails the skeptic test. ML model (35.0%) agrees with
  the market. Tabur side offers no value either (blend says 59.4% vs 69.4% implied).
  Mixed, mutually-cancelling signals → no bet.

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