TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Arango vs L. Nilsson (Bastad on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with E. Arango favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Arango | L. Nilsson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.5% | 59.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.3% | 28.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Arango | clay | 1556 | 69–65 | 134 |
| L. Nilsson | hard | 1468 | 27–15 | 42 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
E. Arango leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2026 | Bastad | clay | E. Arango | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Boisson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | L. Nilsson | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Gasanova | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Back | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Esquiva Banuls | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | F. Parcelli | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Rouvroy | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Ganz | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used