TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Alexandrova vs L. Tararudee (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with E. Alexandrova favoured at 1.22.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Alexandrova | L. Tararudee |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
79.7% | 20.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.6% | 34.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.1% | 43.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
79.7% | 20.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
75.5% | 24.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Alexandrova | hard | 1760 | 103–77 | 180 |
| L. Tararudee | hard | 1846 | 152–75 | 227 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
E. Alexandrova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Liutova | 1 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tararudee | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | E. Jones | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Bartunkova | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J. Kovackova | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
WIMBLEDON R128 (grass) — E. Alexandrova vs L. Tararudee MODELS: ELO 0.797 A | ML 0.656 A | model 0.797 A | market implied 0.755 A (A @1.22 / B @3.75). value_pick A, edge +0.043. NOTE: models do NOT mutually agree — ELO above market, ML (0.656) below market break-even (0.755). FORM A (Alexandrova): W vs Udvardy 6-4 6-2 (Wk 1549, DOM) at Wimbledon R1; L vs Osaka 2-6 2-6 (Strong); W vs M.Andreeva 6-3 6-4 (Strong 1669, DOM) Bad Homburg; W vs A.Li 3-set GRIND; L vs Sabalenka 4-6 4-6 (Elite, competitive). Tour-level player, solid grass form, owns quality wins (Andreeva DOM, tight vs Sabalenka). FORM B (Tararudee): W vs Tagger 7-6 5-7 6-4 (Wk 1586, GRIND) Wimbledon R1 — scrappy 3-setter; L vs Erjavec; L vs Sonmez 4-6 0-6 (bagel set). Challenger/W100-level (Tokyo final run vs sub-1700 ELO). No wins over Strong/Elite on grass. FATIGUE: A heavily loaded — 5 matches/14d, ~321 court min, back-to-back, last match 1d ago. B fresher — 2 matches/14d, ~219 min. Court-time diff >60min → A disadvantaged on legs. Real but quality gap dominates. NARRATIVE: No let-down (neither played a Final recently). Venue: A avenged earlier Hertogenbosch loss to Udvardy here. No title-recency signal. VERDICT: Classic short-priced favorite. ELO + market agree ~0.76-0.80; ML's 0.656 (implying B value @3.75) is the lone dissenter but rests on sparse W100-tier comps and is not trustworthy across this large class gap. Qualitative read validates Alexandrova as clearly the stronger player — it does NOT validate backing Tararudee. Backing A @1.22 = ~4% edge against a fatigued favorite = no margin. PASS.