TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Yastremska vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (Parma on 2026-05-15) — the market is efficient, with D. Yastremska favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Yastremska | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.8% | 55.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.2% | 59.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.9% | 53.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.0% | 56.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
51.4% | 48.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Yastremska | hard | 1707 | 86–81 | 167 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
J. Bouzas Maneiro leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 1 |
| May 16, 2026 | Parma | clay | D. Yastremska | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 27, 2025 | Beijing | hard | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 |
| July 5, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Ito | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Dudeney | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Tomljanovic | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 15, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used