TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Vidmanova vs R. Zarazua (Memphis (Usa) - Qualification on 2026-08-01) — the market is efficient, with D. Vidmanova favoured at 1.68.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Vidmanova | R. Zarazua |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
56.7% | 43.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vidmanova | hard | 1784 | 68–22 | 90 |
| R. Zarazua | hard | 1720 | 110–84 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
D. Vidmanova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Memphis (Usa) - Qualification | hard | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | S. Stephens | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
All Aug. 1, 2026 results & picks →
Vidmanova (A) vs Zarazua (B) — WTA Memphis SF, hard MODELS vs MARKET ELO: A 59.7% | Sim (AH A -1.5 covers 51.2% => implied ~62% A) | Market Betfair: A ~57-58% (1.73/2.32) | ML: A 45.8% (B-favored, lone dissenter) => 3-way consensus (ELO+sim+market) makes A the ~58-62% favorite; ML is the outlier. RECENT FORM (last 5) A Vidmanova (23, #106): Memphis W vs Volynets(1773,Strong,3set), W vs Stephens, W vs Bassols; earlier ITF/quali W100 mixed. Match-sharp, 3 matches deep at venue. ELO-fav yet ranked 106 => rating farmed on ITF/quali fields; discount the ELO edge. NOTE: scoreline orientation in feed is unreliable (several "Won" rows show loss scores) — shape not used. B Zarazua (28, #75): Memphis W vs Kessler(DOM 6-4 6-1), through R16/QF; prior main-tour run heavy on losses (Dolehide, Eala, Xin Wang, Kraus, Noskova). Higher ranked but market already prices her as dog on current momentum. Match-sharp. FATIGUE A: matches_14d 5, court 462min, won a 3-SET QF today (08-01) => 3-set-hangover -4.5pp into a likely back-to-back SF; age 23 baseline (no soften/harden). Worsens A's already-short price. B: matches_14d 7, back_to_back 3, court 511min, last match 07-31 (one day more rest than A). Both heavily played — market over-prices visible fatigue; differential mildly favors B but cannot create an edge. NARRATIVE No fresh first-final letdown. Both deep-run, both match-sharp (no rust). Surface consistent (hard). Player note (B) is generic Memphis preview — no injury/withdrawal signal. PRICING A: Betfair 1.73; min_odds = 1.05/0.597 = 1.76 => 1.73 BELOW min-odds = auto-PASS. Value edge 2.96% < 5% bar. Fatigue haircut cuts A further. B: ML 54.2% vs Betfair adj 44.4% = ~9.8% raw edge — BUT sourced only from lone outlier ML vs ELO+sim+market consensus; the one qualitative point (rank 75>106) is already priced. No unpriced info => edge manufactured, not validated. ALT: AH A -1.5 sim 51.2% vs 54.2% impl (neg); B +1.5 sim 48.76% vs 50.3% (neg); Totals 21.5 over 50.1% vs 53.1% / under 49.9% vs 51.3% (both neg). Nothing clears bar. MARKET CHOICE alt_markets present. Best expression: none clears its bar. ML A too short (below min-odds); ML B is lone-model against 3-way consensus. AH/totals all negative-edge. AH shadow: B +1.5 @ 2.04 (dog ML < 3.0, not applicable but logged). GATES G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no numeric edge survives at the executable price: A below min-odds (2.96%<5%), B's ~9.8% comes solely from the outlier ML contradicting ELO+sim+market. Strip narrative and nothing stakeable remains. G2 consensus: PASS (stake-tier only) — would be lone_signal/capped even if a bet existed. G3 fatal-risk: PASS (ML scope) — n/a, no bet. VERDICT: PASS. A is priced too short and carries a fatigue haircut; B's edge is manufactured from a single dissenting model against a three-way consensus the market already reflects. Coin-flip match, no exchange value.