TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Vidmanova vs K. Volynets (Memphis (Usa) - Qualification on 2026-07-31) — the market is efficient, with K. Volynets favoured at 1.63.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Vidmanova | K. Volynets |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.3% | 50.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.0% | 39.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.8% | 58.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vidmanova | hard | 1784 | 68–22 | 90 |
| K. Volynets | hard | 1758 | 111–90 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
D. Vidmanova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Memphis (Usa) - Qualification | hard | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | S. Stephens | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | I. Shymanovich | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | G. Minnen | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
All July 31, 2026 results & picks →
D. Vidmanova (A) vs K. Volynets (B) — WTA Memphis QF (hard) MODELS ELO A 49.3% | ML A 49.6% | Sim A 50.0% — essentially a coin-flip. Book: A 2.27 / B 1.63 (implied A 41.8%). Betfair exchange: A 2.12 / B 1.51. Market leans B (fav). Commission-adj executable A = 2.064 -> implied 48.4%. The brief's 8.2% "value" on A is a BOOK-vs-exchange artifact only; on the exchange the edge is ~1.5% (0.50 - 0.484). Book 2.27 is a stale soft quote the exchange (2.12) contradicts -> that KILLS the edge, does not confirm it. RECENT FORM (last 5) Vidmanova: 07-30 W Stephens(1589) 6-2 6-4 DOM; 07-28 W Bassols(1500) 3-set GRIND; 07-23 L Ku(1500) 3-set; 07-22 W Hosogi(1500) TB GRIND. Shape STABLE (solid DOM over Avg yesterday, but grinding weak fields = mixed). Volynets: 07-29 W Shymanovich(1500) 6-4 6-2 DOM; 07-27 W Golubic(1500) 3-set TB GRIND; then strong grass block (Newport final, Nottingham/Hertogenbosch titles). Shape STABLE-to-good, more accomplished résumé. PATH & FATIGUE Both match-sharp: 2 Memphis wins each this week, conditions grooved. A: last match 07-30 = 2-set win yesterday (~neutral, no 3-set haircut; the 3-setter was 07-28, 3 days back). matches_14d 4, 348min. Age 23 baseline. B: last match 07-29, 193min, lighter load. Age 24 baseline. No extreme fatigue spot on either side; cumulative-minutes gap = context only. No surface transition (both have 2 hard matches in hand). No let-down. ELO/RANK SANITY Ranks near-identical (A 106 / B 104), ELO ~even -> credible, no divergence. VERDICT Full model-market alignment: models ~50/50, ELO+market both lean B slightly, no side has articulable mispricing on the executable price. The only "edge" is a book/exchange artifact that evaporates at 2.12. Exchange edge ~1.5% << 5% bar; min_odds for A = 1.05/0.50 = 2.10 (barely cleared, edge insufficient). G1 edge-origin FAILS -> PASS.