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D. Vallejo vs K. Feldbausch — Prediction & Analysis

Kitzbuhel · ATP Kitzbuhel - 1/16-finals · July 21, 2026 · 11:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Vallejo vs K. Feldbausch (Kitzbuhel on 2026-07-21) — the market is efficient, with D. Vallejo favoured at 1.48.

Surface clay Odds D. Vallejo 1.48 · K. Feldbausch 2.65

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: D. Vallejo · K. Feldbausch · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ D. Vallejo vs K. Feldbausch — Kitzbuhel (clay), 1/16-finals ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Book:  A 1.48 (64.2%) / B 2.65 (37.7%)
  ELO:   A 56.9%   ML: A 53.2%   Sim: A 57.9%
  → All three models price A well below the book's 64.2%. value_pick B, edge ~6.3% (blend).
  Betfair ML: 1.03 / 1.02 — both sides near 1.0 = dead/illiquid book. NO executable
  exchange price. Rule: book-priced ML needs ≥8% edge or PASS. alt_markets otherwise null.

RECENT FORM (last 5 each)
  Vallejo (A):
    07-18 Bastad SF   L vs Darderi (1929, Elite)  4-6 7-6 3-6  — tight GRIND loss
    07-17 Bastad QF   W vs Travaglia (1634, Avg)  7-6 6-2      GRIND
    07-15 Bastad R16  W vs V.D. Zandschulp (1730, Strong)      GRIND (2 TBs)
    07-14 Bastad R32  W vs Damas (1524, Weak)     6-3 6-3      DOM
    07-09 Braunschweig L vs Moeller (1609)
  → Real ATP-level form: Bastad SF, pushed Darderi to 3. Classier resume than opponent.
  Feldbausch (B):
    07-19 Kitzbuhel (quali) F  W vs Kopp (1634, Avg)   6-0 6-4  DOM
    07-18 Kitzbuhel (quali) SF W vs Heide (1781, Strong)        DOM
    07-13 Gstaad R32  L vs Kecmanovic (1769, Strong) in 3
    07-05 Troyes F    L vs Moeller (1578)
    07-04 Troyes SF   W vs Giustino (1572, Avg)
  → On-site momentum (2 quali wins incl. DOM vs Strong Heide), but bulk of resume is
  Challenger-level; has lost his last three finals (Troyes, Geneva, Tunis).

FATIGUE
  Vallejo:    6 matches/14d, 18 sets, 746 court-min, b2b x2, last played 07-18 + Bastad→Kitzbuhel travel
  Feldbausch: 4 matches/14d, 12 sets, 435 court-min, b2b x1, last played 07-19
  → Court-time diff ~311 min: heavy fatigue disadvantage VALLEJO. This is the core of the B case.

NARRATIVE
  Feldbausch "Won Final" 07-19 is the Kitzbuhel qualifying final — entry momentum, not a
  let-down spot. Venue momentum B: 2-0 at this event. Vallejo title recency: Madrid CH
  Final won 04-21; Valencia F 05-17 (lost).

VERDICT — LEAN B (no bet)
  Genuine model-market disagreement (ML has A at 53% vs book 64%) AND qualitative
  validation (severe fatigue asymmetry + travel on A, fresh qualifier with on-site wins on B).
  But the Betfair market is empty (1.03/1.02 quotes = no liquidity), so the only price is
  the book's 2.65. My p(B) ≈ 0.45-0.46 → edge vs book ~7-8%, sitting exactly on the 8%
  book-priced threshold — and small clay events without exchange liquidity are the segment
  the backtest loses in. Class gap also cuts against B: his DOM wins came vs quali/Challenger
  fields while Vallejo was making an ATP SF. Skeptic wins on pricing: LEAN, no stake.

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