TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Sweeny vs F. Roncadelli (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with D. Sweeny favoured at 1.06.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Sweeny | F. Roncadelli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
73.9% | 26.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.2% | 25.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
79.0% | 21.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
90.4% | 9.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Sweeny | hard | 1584 | 223–130 | 353 |
| F. Roncadelli | clay | 1601 | 166–120 | 286 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
D. Sweeny leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | D. Sweeny | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Milavsky | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Chan | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Martin | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 0 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | N. Gombos | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | J. Nicod | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | O. Paldanius | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Alcala Gurri | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used