TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Snigur vs A. Krueger (Wimbledon on 2026-07-04) — the market is efficient, with A. Krueger favoured at 1.81.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Snigur | A. Krueger |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
29.3% | 70.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
35.1% | 64.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.3% | 70.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
48.0% | 52.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Snigur | hard | 1728 | 175–93 | 268 |
| A. Krueger | hard | 1720 | 94–83 | 177 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 9, 2026.
A. Krueger leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Krueger | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Tagger | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | L. Tararudee | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Aksu | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | E. Seidel | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 4, 2026 results & picks →
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D. Snigur (A) vs A. Krueger (B) — Wimbledon, grass, 1/16-finals
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MODELS
ELO : A 0.293 (strong Krueger)
ML : A 0.495 (coin-flip)
S/R : A 0.351 (Krueger)
Model: A 0.293 / B 0.707 Market: A 0.480 / B 0.520 (1.96 / 1.81)
Value pick B, edge +18.7% — driven by ELO ONLY; ML flatly disagrees.
FORM (grass, most-recent first)
Snigur (A): W Jeanjean 6-4 6-3 DOM(Avg) | W Svitolina 7-5 6-2 DOM(Strong 1812)
| L Kalinina 6-7 5-7(Avg) | W Marcinko DOM(Weak) | W Kenin 6-3 6-1 DOM(Avg)
| L Montgomery(Strong) | W Udvardy GRIND | W Badosa 6-1 7-6 GRIND(Strong 1739)
Read: legit grass form — beat Svitolina & Badosa clean. Clay-leaning player
OVER-performing on grass, but form is live and real.
Krueger (B): W Bolkvadze 6-1 6-0 DOM | W Vekic 3-6 7-6 6-4 GRIND(Strong 1796)
| W Iatcenko 7-6 6-1 GRIND(Strong) | W Hontama GRIND | W Knutson 7-5 7-5 GRIND
| Ilkley + Birmingham title runs | only grass loss: L Bartunkova 4-6 6-7(Strong)
Read: red-hot grass specialist, deep at Wimbledon, quality scalps.
FATIGUE
Snigur : 5 matches/14d, ~314min court, B2B 2, last 07-02
Krueger: 5 matches/14d, ~381min court, B2B 2, last 07-02
Court-time diff 67min (>60) → heavier Krueger slightly disadvantaged.
Krueger's path was grind-heavy (Vekic/Hontama/Knutson 3-setters); Snigur cruised
two straight-setters. Slight rest edge → SNIGUR.
NARRATIVE
Let-down : none (last Final >7d for both)
Venue : both deep in current Wimbledon draw, no differentiator
Title : Krueger multiple grass titles this cycle (Birmingham/Ilkley)
VERDICT: PASS
ELO's +18.7% B edge is NOT mutually confirmed — ML sits at a coin-flip and the
market prices this ~52/48. Snigur's live grass wins over Svitolina & Badosa
neutralize the historical-ELO gap, and fatigue tilts the underdog's way. No side
offers a validated edge; market is efficient. No bet.
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